Shortly after President Barack Obama won re-election on Tuesday night, Speaker of the House John Boehner was elevated to the post of most-powerful-person-in-Washington. For as Congress returns for a marathon Lame Duck session, it is Boehner who holds the fate to: Obama’s political legacy, the future of the Republican Party, any potential economic recovery and the debt deal needed to continue that recovery.
Next week Congress returns to address the looming fiscal cliff and series of sequestration cuts set to go into effect in 2013. If the cuts go into effect, they have been predicted to lower the American GDP rate to .5%, essentially halting the economy. The only way to avoid that is to financially reform the tax code, entitlement system and government spending. That means, both Obama and Boehner have to agree to a comprehensive deal, almost similar to the one which fell apart last summer.
Boehner’s position could not be more Machiavellian, even if it had been written by Shakespeare himself. For while the Lame Duck session contains the same characters from last year’s failed debt negotiations, Boehner is politically in a different place. He has proven that he can defend the House majority electorally, and unlike the president, he is not term limited. That being said, a few things bear mentioning.
It’s worth remembering that in 2011, it was Obama who walked away from the grand bargain. This action burned Boehner, and did significant damage to their relationship, emboldening House Republicans to block all Obama-favored legislation in Congress. Second, Obama is a now a lame duck president and the economnic recovery is a major part of his legacy. In an unusual way Boehner’s ability to work with Obama, gives him access to shaping what exactly that legacy will be. Remember, a deal is need to prevent the sequestration cuts and Boehner is key to the negoiations.
Finally, Boehner’s ability to deal, and the type of deal he may/may not enact, will also cast a shadow on the looming Republican civil war. Make no mistake, after Romney’s loss Republicans are fighting for the soul of the party and Boehner is at the center of that fight. As the Party leader, any deal he constructs will shape the GOP’s economic messaging for the next two years, and possibly the 2016 presidential election. Boehner can move the party’s economnic image beyond tax cuts and smaller government, to something that is more tangible.
Boehner is an old-school politico, whose only ambition was to be speaker. He is the type of speaker, like Tipp O’Neil and Sam Rayburn, willing to cut a deal. Regardless though, President Obama, the Republican Party, and the financial health of the country are all relying on John Boehner. Hence why he is the most powerful man in Washington, DC.
For more information on Speaker John Boehner, please visit: http://www.speaker.gov/
For more information on the Lame Duck Session please check out:
The Economist – July 14, 2012 edition – “The American Economy: Comeback Kid”
National Journal – July 2, 2012 edition – “Field Guide to the Lame Duck Session”
The Price of Politics by Bob Woodward, Available for purchase on amazon.com
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